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澳元本周前瞻:聚焦三大看点,多头命悬一线

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年10月20日 10:09:34
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(原)(标)(题)(:澳)(元)(本)(周)(前)(瞻)(:聚)(焦)(三)(大)(看)(点)(,多)(头)(命)(悬)(一)(线)(
北)(京)(时)(间)(周)(二)((5月)(1日)()12:30澳)(洲)(联)(储)(将)(公)(布)(5月)(利)(率)(决)(议)(,预)(计)(将)(保)(持)(1.5%的)(现)(金)(利)(率)(不)(变)(,紧)(接)(着)(主)(席)(洛)(威)(将)(在)(董)(事)(会)(晚)(宴)(上)(发)(布)(讲)(话)(;北)(京)(时)(间)(周)(四)((5月)(3日)()9:30将)(公)(布)(澳)(大)(利)(亚)(3月)(商)(品)(贸)(易)(帐)(;周)(五)((5月)(4日)()澳)(洲)(联)(储)(发)(表)(的)(货)(币)(季)(度)(政)(策)(声)(明)(,这)(是)(继)(今)(年)(2月)(9日)(以)(来)(第)(二)(次)(关)(于)(澳)(大)(利)(亚)(货)(币)(政)(策)(的)(声)(明)(,对)(澳)(元)(的)(走)(势)(具)(备)(前)(瞻)(性)(的)(指)(引)(。那)(具)(体)(的)(事)(件)(届)(时)(究)(竟)(有)(哪)(些)(看)(点)(,对)(于)(澳)(元)(有)(什)(么)(影)(响)(,这)(些)(因)(素)(又)(能)(否)(使)(得)(澳)(元)(扭)(转)(近)(期)(的)(颓)(势)(呢)(,本)(文)(将)(一)(一)(做)(出)(解)(答)(。
澳)(洲)(联)(储)(利)(率)(决)(议)(
利)(率)(决)(议)(中)(料)(会)(提)(及)(对)(经)(济)(的)(展)(望)(、通)(胀)(的)(预)(期)(以)(及)(近)(期)(美)(债)(收)(益)(率)(上)(升)(对)(澳)(大)(利)(亚)(的)(影)(响)(。
通)(胀)(和)(失)(业)(率)(
在)(4月)(的)(利)(率)(决)(议)(中)(澳)(洲)(联)(储)(秉)(持)(了)(一)(贯)(保)(守)(、谨)(慎)(的)(态)(度)(,即)(使)(是)(在)(全)(球)(加)(息)(背)(景)(的)(浪)(潮)(下)(,其)(也)(迟)(迟)(未)(作)(出)(加)(息)(的)(动)(作)(,并)(连)(续)(21个)(月)(将)(利)(率)(维)(持)(在)(1.5%的)(低)(位)(。
其)(背)(后)(的)(原)(因)(是)(澳)(洲)(联)(储)(认)(为)(无)(论)(是)(失)(业)(率)(的)(下)(降)(亦)(或)(是)(通)(胀)(的)(回)(升)(至)(目)(标)(水)(平)(,这)(都)(是)(一)(个)(渐)(进)(的)(过)(程)(,所)(以)(必)(须)(维)(持)(一)(段)(时)(间)(的)(低)(利)(率)(来)(支)(撑)(澳)(大)(利)(亚)(经)(济)(增)(长)(。而)(由)(于)(市)(场)(的)(反)(应)(往)(往)(是)(滞)(后)(的)(,需)(要)(更)(多)(的)(时)(间)(去)(观)(察)(一)(个)(阶)(段)(经)(济)(复)(苏)(的)(状)(况)(后)(才)(会)(去)(考)(虑)(紧)(缩)(央)(行)(的)(钱)(袋)(子)(。
就)(从)(近)(期)(的)(数)(据)(来)(看)(,因)(为)(受)(到)(家)(庭)(收)(入)(增)(长)(缓)(慢)(的)(影)(响)(,第)(一)(季)(度)(CPI年)(率)(、季)(率)(录)(得)(分)(别)(为)(1.9%和)(0.4%均)(不)(及)(前)(值)(且)(低)(于)(预)(期)(,失)(业)(率)(仍)(旧)(维)(持)(在)(5.5%没)(有)(变)(化)(。而)(数)(据)(未)(达)(预)(期)(,可)(能)(又)(会)(推)(缓)(加)(息)(的)(时)(间)(进)(度)(,所)(以)(本)(次)(利)(率)(决)(议)(关)(于)(通)(胀)(和)(失)(业)(率)(的)(措)(词)(仍)(需)(密)(切)(关)(注)(。要)(化)(解)(这)(一)(问)(题)(的)(根)(源)(就)(是)(工)(资)(增)(速)(超)(过)(预)(期)(,未)(来)(也)(可)(以)(在)(5月)(15日)((周)(二)()到)(期)(的)(第)(一)(季)(度)(工)(资)(价)(格)(指)(数)(找)(到)(答)(案)(。
在)(宣)(布)(完)(利)(率)(决)(议)(后)(,需)(要)(进)(一)(步)(关)(注)(洛)(威)(在)(新)(闻)(发)(布)(会)(上)(的)(言)(辞)(是)(否)(暗)(示)(了)(对)(经)(济)(增)(长)(和)(通)(胀)(预)(测)(进)(行)(上)(调)(的)(可)(能)(性)(。若)(提)(到)(“预)(计)(通)(胀)(低)(迷)(”、“经)(济)(上)(行)(仍)(需)(要)(时)(间)(”这)(些)(字)(眼)(,则)(偏)(属)(鸽)(派)(,或)(将)(使)(澳)(元)(承)(压)(走)(弱)(。反)(之)(如)(果)(出)(现)(“预)(计)(通)(胀)(回)(升)(”、“预)(计)(2018年)(经)(济)(增)(速)(加)(快)(”等)(措)(词)(,表)(示)(出)(澳)(洲)(联)(储)(对)(经)(济)(回)(暖)(,通)(胀)(加)(快)(回)(升)(的)(信)(心)(,则)(当)(属)(偏)(鹰)(派)(论)(调)(,会)(推)(动)(澳)(元)(的)(进)(一)(步)(反)(弹)(空)(间)(。
美)(债)(收)(益)(率)(升)(高)(对)(澳)(元)(的)(影)(响)(
除)(了)(本)(国)(的)(通)(胀)(以)(及)(经)(济)(状)(况)(,美)(债)(收)(益)(率)(近)(期)(的)(不)(断)(走)(高)(也)(可)(能)(是)(澳)(洲)(联)(储)(会)(关)(心)(的)(焦)(点)(。美)(元)(若)(一)(直)(保)(持)(在)(优)(势)(地)(位)(,像)(澳)(元)(这)(样)(本)(国)(负)(债)(水)(平)(高)(且)(主)(要)(依)(赖)(外)(国)(资)(金)(的)(货)(币)(尤)(其)(会)(面)(临)(抛)(售)(的)(压)(力)(。
但)(另)(一)(方)(面)(,收)(益)(率)(的)(提)(升)(也)(会)(作)(用)(到)(通)(胀)(的)(提)(高)(,最)(明)(显)(的)(反)(应)(就)(是)(大)(宗)(商)(品)(价)(格)(的)(推)(高)(,而)(现)(在)(全)(球)(市)(场)(具)(有)(联)(动)(反)(应)(,澳)(大)(利)(亚)(可)(能)(会)(受)(到)(外)(围)(环)(境)(的)(影)(响)(从)(而)(通)(胀)(回)(升)(高)(于)(预)(期)(。如)(果)(澳)(洲)(联)(储)(的)(措)(辞)(中)(有)(提)(及)(美)(债)(收)(益)(率)(对)(澳)(大)(利)(亚)(的)(影)(响)(,那)(笔)(者)(认)(为)(这)(对)(于)(澳)(元)(的)(影)(响)(可)(能)(是)(偏)(中)(性)(的)(。
澳)(大)(利)(亚)(3月)(贸)(易)(帐)(
在)(周)(二)(公)(布)(利)(率)(局)(以)(后)(,紧)(接)(着)(周)(四)(会)(公)(布)(澳)(大)(利)(亚)(3月)(贸)(易)(帐)(,这)(对)(于)(严)(重)(依)(赖)(贸)(易)(出)(口)(的)(澳)(大)(利)(亚)(来)(说)(是)(非)(常)(重)(要)(的)(,代)(表)(了)(一)(国)(大)(多)(数)(的)(经)(济)(状)(况)(。此)(前)(前)(值)(为)(8.25亿)(澳)(元)(,市)(场)(目)(前)(的)(预)(测)(为)(9.5亿)(澳)(元)(,源)(于)(市)(场)(对)(第)(一)(季)(度)(经)(济)(增)(长)(前)(景)(的)(看)(好)(。
如)(果)(出)(现)(超)(过)(预)(期)(的)(贸)(易)(盈)(余)(的)(大)(幅)(上)(涨)(这)(就)(会)(支)(撑)(澳)(元)(走)(强)(,因)(为)(这)(表)(明)(出)(口)(上)(升)(或)(者)(进)(口)(下)(降)(,而)(鉴)(于)(这)(些)(都)(必)(须)(以)(澳)(元)(为)(货)(币)(支)(付)(,这)(种)(变)(化)(往)(往)(会)(导)(致)(货)(币)(走)(强)(。
另)(外)(值)(得)(注)(意)(的)(是)(,除)(了)(本)(国)(的)(经)(济)(基)(本)(面)(因)(素)(,作)(为)(与)(商)(品)(货)(币)(直)(接)(挂)(钩)(的)(货)(币)(,大)(宗)(商)(品)(铁)(矿)(石)(价)(格)(的)(是)(否)(持)(续)(走)(弱)(也)(是)(值)(得)(考)(量)(的)(因)(素)(,这)(就)(又)(会)(和)(中)(美)(贸)(易)(摩)(擦)(会)(否)(升)(级)(以)(及)(钢)(铁)(的)(关)(税)(征)(收)(会)(产)(生)(直)(接)(联)(系)(。而)(本)(周)(四)((5月)(3日)()美)(国)(财)(长)(努)(钦)(恰)(好)(要)(赴)(华)(来)(进)(行)(贸)(易)(谈)(判)(,中)(国)(作)(为)(其)(最)(大)(的)(贸)(易)(伙)(伴)(,在)(出)(口)(贸)(易)(方)(面)(也)(有)(举)(足)(轻)(重)(的)(地)(位)(,所)(以)(这)(也)(是)(对)(未)(来)(澳)(大)(利)(亚)(贸)(易)(顺)(差)(能)(否)(持)(续)(扩)(大)(的)(重)(要)(观)(察)(因)(素)(。
货)(币)(季)(度)(政)(策)(声)(明)(
根)(据)(此)(前)(2月)(份)(的)(货)(币)(季)(度)(政)(策)(声)(明)(,大)(概)(率)(会)(提)(到)(几)(个)(方)(面)(包)(括)(家)(庭)(债)(务)(和)(收)(入)(增)(长)(的)(状)(况)(、房)(地)(产)(有)(关)(的)(企)(业)(基)(础)(设)(施)(的)(投)(资)(、澳)(元)(的)(升)(贬)(对)(经)(济)(通)(胀)(的)(影)(响)(、对)(于)(未)(来)(通)(胀)(以)(及)(核)(心)(通)(胀)(的)(预)(期)(。
①家)(庭)(债)(务)(和)(收)(入)(方)(面)(,主)(要)(关)(注)(债)(务)(居)(高)(不)(下)(的)(问)(题)(是)(否)(持)(续)(存)(在)(抑)(制)(了)(居)(民)(的)(消)(费)(能)(力)(,同)(时)(收)(入)(的)(增)(长)(能)(否)(抵)(消)(其)(带)(来)(的)(负)(面)(影)(响)(,从)(而)(促)(进)(未)(来)(零)(售)(销)(售)(的)(增)(加)(。
②房)(地)(产)(方)(面)(,此)(前)(2月)(份)(由)(于)(限)(制)(银)(行)(贷)(款)(使)(得)(房)(地)(产)(有)(所)(降)(温)(,受)(此)(影)(响)(房)(地)(产)(相)(关)(的)(基)(建)(行)(业)(也)(被)(拖)(累)(,可)(关)(注)(后)(续)(进)(展)(。
③澳)(元)(汇)(率)(方)(面)(,澳)(洲)(联)(储)(对)(于)(澳)(元)(都)(会)(有)(所)(置)(评)(,此)(前)(它)(们)(曾)(指)(出)(澳)(元)(的)(升)(值)(可)(能)(会)(伤)(害)(经)(济)(和)(通)(胀)(,实)(现)(通)(胀)(仍)(需)(时)(日)(,澳)(元)(升)(值)(不)(受)(待)(见)(。如)(今)(澳)(元)(进)(一)(步)(疲)(软)(后)(,可)(能)(会)(有)(不)(一)(样)(的)(措)(词)(。
④通)(胀)(方)(面)(,澳)(联)(联)(储)(此)(前)(的)(预)(期)(为)(2018年)(底)(澳)(大)(利)(亚)(潜)(在)(通)(胀)(预)(期)(为)(1.75%,2019年)(底)(澳)(大)(利)(亚)(潜)(在)(通)(胀)(预)(期)(为)(2%,2020年)(中)(澳)(大)(利)(亚)(潜)(在)(通)(胀)(预)(期)(为)(2.25%;核)(心)(通)(胀)(到)(2020年)(6月)(为)(2.25%。GDP增)(速)(方)(面)(,2018年)(底)(澳)(大)(利)(亚)(GDP增)(速)(预)(期)(为)(3.25%,2019年)(底)(GDP增)(速)(预)(期)(为)(3.25%,2020年)(中)(GDP增)(速)(预)(期)(为)(3.0%。可)(以)(密)(切)(关)(注)(数)(据)(是)(否)(有)(存)(在)(上)(调)(或)(者)(下)(移)(的)(可)(能)(。
技)(术)(分)(析)(
形)(态)(上)(,在)(做)(出)(假)(突)(破)(向)(上)(后)(,拉)(出)(上)(影)(响)(后)(向)(下)(突)(破)(收)(敛)(三)(角)(形)(下)(端)(,目)(前)(支)(撑)(反)(变)(成)(压)(力)(,短)(线)(最)(低)(于)(0.7532暂)(时)(止)(稳)(,结)(束)(了)(日)(线)(的)(6连)(跌)(。该)(位)(置)(为)(去)(年)(12月)(8日)(低)(点)(附)(近)(,0.7500整)(数)(关)(卡)(。由)(于)(MACD绿)(柱)(不)(断)(放)(大)(,且)(位)(于)(零)(轴)(下)(方)(,呈)(现)(“倒)(鸭)(嘴)(”走)(势)(,后)(期)(若)(澳)(洲)(联)(储)(仍)(释)(放)(鸽)(派)(信)(号)(,在)(短)(暂)(横)(盘)(后)(仍)(不)(排)(除)(加)(速)(下)(跌)(的)(可)(能)(。下)(一)(位)(置)(在)(0.7374附)(近)(为)(2016年)(5月)(初)(的)(低)(点)(位)(置)(附)(近)(。
(澳)(元)(兑)(美)(元)(日)(线)(图)()
汇)(通)(财)(经)(易)(汇)(通)(行)(情)(软)(件)(显)(示)(,北)(京)(时)(间)(16:08,澳)(元)(兑)(美)(元)(报)(0.7555/57。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
声)(明)(:该)(文)(观)(点)(仅)(代)(表)(作)(者)(本)(人)(,搜)(狐)(号)(系)(信)(息)(发)(布)(平)(台)(,搜)(狐)(仅)(提)(供)(信)(息)(存)(储)(空)(间)(服)(务)(。
阅)(读)(()
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